Think about it TSP & KJ, It made zero sense for me to claim before the people I swapped did. All that would do is give a wolf the indication to claim they were wolf which would immediately result in the other swapped player (now the wolf) arguing what JoH is arguing here, cause what else could he possibly do? Nothing. He's trying to argue his way out of a highly probable scum position, don't let him.

That's what I just said.

And it's not at best 20%. It's 20%, same as you chance of actually targeting IR if you were a townie.

Like I said. One of two things has to be true. Both have a 20% chance of being true on their own. Just because the thing that makes you look bad is only 20% doesn't change the thing that makes you look good only being 20% too. Statistically, this is a 50/50 thing.

But since Silver and I are in agreement to this plan...


IR, Silver and KJ vote for me.

Me, Carlos and TSP vote for IR.


I mean, since you seem to be sure KJ isn't the Tanner, that's a town win no matter what.

I think KJ may be the Tanner so I'm not willing to risk it. Just humor me, eh, for the good of the town?

Lol, it's not 50/50. There is at least an 80% chance I am the TM. 3 people who knew four roles out of five could have come on and disputed my claim if I was lying, they didn't. You know why? Cause I'm the troublemaker. When you consider that I immediately questioned your "switch" claim and at least one townie (TSP) understood that to mean I had an issue with your alleged claim, those odds are even higher. To any uninterested person it is clear that there is like a 90% chance I'm the TM when you factor all of that in.

On the other hand your argument has to begin with the premise of me being a wolf; that's the only way that any of your hypotheticals work. What are the odds I was given a wolf role 2 in 9? What is that around 20%? and those odds go down when you factor in everything in my favor, including that I immediately questioned your claim and that no one disputes my troublemaker role, when there was an 80% chance to do so if I was lying.

I am fine with this. If KJ is tanner, Carlos is more likely to actually be insomniac, therefore IR is more likely lying and we have less of a need to lynch JOH.

I would like KJ to confirm that he's on board with this.

Yeah except I strongly suspect IR is not lying about Carlos because I know I am not a wolf. I just don't see why someone who told the truth about them being wolf, upon finding out they had been swapped, wouldn't tell the truth about who the other wolf is, when the person who called them out is not the other wolf (and yes I do realize that you cannot know for sure that I am the other wolf).

Here are some quotes from TOWN JoH in the first game of this type to further show how he's not playing as town JoH now and to prove why he's wolf JoH here:

So a 60% chance on a busted claim is terrible odds, but an 80% chance on a busted claim (based on what he's alleging I did here) isn't terrible odds? Nonsense.

Ah, so in the first game, it was possible that the two wolves didn't think of something, yet he expects everyone to believe that here I am a wolf partner of IR and we thought of everything. Including questioning JoH's claim on the 5th (or so) post of the game and the fact that if I claimed a fake TM role, there were 4 out of 5 chances to bust me (an 80% chance to bust me).

Ah, so when Gfish or Carlos swaps JoH with a wolf that's an "easy lynch" "for the win".

But when I switch JoH with a wolf, suddenly I'm a wolf/wolf partner. Seems legit... /sarcasm

The Day is over!

PM me your votes please.

Votes:
Immortal_Raven: Jackofhearts2005
TonyStarkPrime: Immortal_Raven
killingjoke101: killingjoke101
Jackofhearts2005: Immortal_Raven
CarlosMucha: Silver Lantern
Silver Lantern: Jackofhearts2005

Immortal_Raven has been lynched! He was

Jackofhearts2005 has been lynched! He was



win!

So, to clarify, I_R, TSP, and Silver have won.

Initial roles were:
1. Immortal_Raven - Werewolf
2. TonyStarkPrime - Seer
3. Killingjoke101 - Tanner
4. Jackofhearts2005 - Robber
5. CarlosMucha - Werewolf
6. Silver Lantern - Troublemaker
7. LEFT - Minion
8. MIDDLE - Insomniac
9. RIGHT - Paranormal Investigator

Night actions:
TSP looks at LEFT/RIGHT
JoH steals TSP - JoH now Seer, TSP now Robber
Silver swaps JoH and IR - JoH now Wolf, IR now Seer

Thoughts:
Interesting role setup this time, much swingier than last time. Potential for majority evil (2x werewolf, minion, PI) or crushing town win (PI gets two Townie roles and can thus confirm results). Tanner might be the key here; a hard role to play, but the presence causes much more confusion when claims come out (theoretically, anyway...)

Liked Joh's gambit of lying about who he swapped - he was unlucky he happened to pick a wolf that the troublemaker swapped with him.

It was really funny watching Silver and Joh go back and forth... I'm sitting here like "oh classic wolf Joh" but then I realized... he doesn't actually know if he's a wolf or not! Not for sure, anyway. Which is the beauty of ONUW.

Felt bad for kj101, though. Not being able to participate in the thread until later on ended up meaning he was kinda screwed as Tanner, the way things shook out. It's a tough role to being with, but considering there was already a pretty clear duality by the time he could get involved - ouch.

I enjoy running these games, because once you figure out your roleset it's simple as pie to run. I plan on continuing to run them periodically when there's a gap between more traditional games, since they go pretty quick. Again, apologies for the delay in getting this open - I will probably put something more definitive about the run date in the signup thread for the next one (assuming there is interest) to hopefully avoid this problem in the future.

Thanks for playing!

Very fun game colonial and everybody!! Congrats to the winners!

Really interesting game. I was looking forward to playing, but this just fell at a poor timing for me. I wish I would have been able to be more active.

Congrats on the win, Villagers!

Good game!
I really liked JOH's play as a maybe werewolf.

I recommend a different kind of wolf for the third game. Dream wolf is still my favorite.

Come on, Carlos.

I didn't know I was the wolf but I strongly suspected it.