Yup.

But it does give you some ideas of when to check back on the document.

Like, if it says that the last flip was at 6am EST and estimates that the next flip will be 2pm, then it is a pretty good bet that the next flip won't happen before 2pm.

I'm also pretty sure that as actual updates occur it readjusts the estimate based on the rate from the last flip.

Say when I check back at 2 pm it says that it has 800 people. That's 100 per hour, so it extrapolates that to say that the estimated flip will be 4pm.

You do get used to it, though, and can make some pretty good estimates.

5 million+ ISO....


That is all...

Congrats....always nice to see people hitting milestones.

I've got slightly more than that, but I've been saving for a long time now.
When I decide to make the jump to 5* land I'll have enough ISO to do everyone at one time.

Right now there are 39 5* toons.
I soft cap mine at level 360 right now.
I currently have enough ISO to bring 42 toons from level 360 to champion.
As it stands, I have 37/39 toons ready to make the jump.
Wasp is at 12/13 covers.
BRB is at 1/13 covers.
I am currently stacking up for when the LL store is BRB plus whoever the next two 5* toons are. (I'm hearing Mr. Sinister is next.)

At that time I plan to make a bunch of pulls.
I figure that I will hopefully be starting my spree with (at least) 1 cover each of the three available 5*s. Also, an even distribution of 5* covers as I pull would be nice. (Ie, I obviously don't want to find myself with BRB at 0/0/13.)
The best case scenario would have me looking at about 252 pulls.
That is 3 toons x 12 covers x 7 (one 5* per every 7 pulls).

Unfortunately, I see a ton more real-time bookkeeping needing to happen this next spree that I did not have to do before. Thanks, shards.

Previously, I would track cover acquisition for...
LL toon #1 (oldest)
LL toon #2 (middle)
LL toon #3 (newest)
Bonus 5* toon
Undercovered 4* toons

The first 4 will generally remain unchanged. Wasp will most likely be my 5* shard-getter to start. I'll just watch and see when she hits 500. Then I'll switch to someone else. I'll have to play that by ear who goes up next.

The 4* situation is the sticky one, and I'll have to think about my approach.
In the past I would begin by focusing on someone under 13 covers. I'd know when I pulled enough covers for them to hit 13. Then I'd switch to either another toon under 13, if available. If none were under 13, then I would pick someone which I'd like to improve (ie, Juggernaut).
The end result is that I'd generally come away with all of my 4*s champed and some improvements made to a favorite toon.

Shards just poop all over that.

The nature of shards is that you could get burned by drawing that last cover naturally and be left with a stash of shards you no longer need. (I'd love nbperp's one-time transfer option.) This makes me hesitant to mark anyone as a favorite if they are between 10 and 12 covers.
I think that my wisest option is to just BH my toons under 10 and track them.
I currently have four 4* toons under 13 covers. I'd love to get them champed, but they are just not worth the risk of amassing wasted shards. I'll just have to hope that somewhere in the 200+ 4* pulls during the spree that I manage to get covers for them.

The stated intention of shards was to allow a player to focus on developing specific toons, but the reality is that they prevent doing that in a wise manner. The old way was so much better across the board. There is nothing that shards do which is better than the old way (provided you have patience).

Shards changed my perspective of goals. My goal now is all 4*s get to 10 covers. After that, it's just progressing them. Eventually, they will champ. Eventually they'll max. This is different from BHs where my goal was to get all 4*s to 13 covers/champ.

In order to minimize excess Shards, I'm being very judicious with any 10-packs I get. I will not redeem a 10-pack unless it's the first 10-pack for that 4* character. With this approach, the 400 shards drops to 360, and 360 shards is 120*3 (which is the 4-star shard rate for other pulls).

I hit level 198 today. Not much left (if the cap is 200, as I recall).

Caught the 200 Okoye shards, which gave her another level. 10 more levels to go while hopefully Thor gains none.

And that is where I am, but it bugs me to no end that I have these guys floating at 10 covers.
I hit 189 recently. I didn't realize that it capped so soon.

Any word on that getting bumped up?
I remember it being bumped up once already, and I believe that people who were above that got a windfall when that happened.
Do the experience points still continue to accrue after capping out the SHIELD levels, or how do they determine where you are after a bump?

Do random shard on a toon with a feeder really matter? To me they are useless since I won't be going and buying shards from elsewhere.

I did go ahead and splurge on a 10-pack. I got good results.
I got the 200 Okoye shards (boo), two of the 4*s (Juggy* and Torch), a support token (some dupe 2*), two 3* Magnetos, two Mighty tokens, and two elites.

* Juggy being in mine is why I decided to try it.

The Okoye Vault got me a Mighty Token. Not the best, but definitely not the worst.

It is really interesting the idea of splurging tokens. One of the big reasons why I would splurge was to get a whole bunch of BHs. It is not exactly the same now. I don't necessarily need to save tokens to splurge. Plus, trying to keep track of shards makes splurging difficult. My splurging is a lot different that most of your splurging. My splurging is opening 200+standard and 150+ elite tokens. Right now I am mostly saving up for splurges so that I can have a good 2* farm rotation and ensure I have enough HP for roster spots that I need them.

At the moment I only need two 4*s and they will all be rostered. I still need a number of 5*s but I am not ready to spend CP yet. I have enough HP for 7 roster spots and I am sure I have a couple in the farm that can be sold.

I am tempted to buy a 10-pack in the Okoye vault because shards for he would be nice, Mighty tokens and supports would be nice too. The only thoughts that are keeping me from doing this is...
do I want my 8th red Juggy Cover if I get it?
is a 10-pack worth it to me for almost 3 roster spots?
What if I get too many elite tokens *sad*

I deemed it to be a worthwhile risk, but I am not hurting for HP or roster spots.
I figured that there were 17 things in there that would make me happy. The LT, 5 support tokens, 3 4*s, and 8 mighty tokens. The support is a dupe for me, and the shards are pointless in my eyes, but I would not be unhappy. The rest was all ok. Anyway, with close to half making me happy, I figured a ten pack should be an ok return, and I got better than expected. For you it might not be.

I waited to join DPvMPQ until a flip happened with about six hours left in sub one. It paid off with a t20 finish.

So Karolina Dean is the placement reward in the 2099 PVE and then (presumably) the progression in the next event.
Mine is currently 0/3/2.
I still need to snag the yellow from the Simulator for a 1/3/2.
Mine is currently 1/3/2.
T20 in the 2099 event would be nice, but I'll bank on T50 (blue)....1/4/2.
The next event should get a yellow....2/4/2.
I'm just over 3/4 of the way to a bonus cover....2/4/2 + 1....total 9.

Does anyone recall when she became shardable? I set her as my favorite as soon as she could be.
My guess is that she became shardable when the current PVP season began.
The would be:
{However many days a season is} - 12 days 15 hours
ago.

In other words, I'm trying to figure out my general shard acquisition rate.
I think a season is 24 days long, so I think I'm looking at a rate of 300 shards over 12 days or 25 shards per day.
At that rate, I would need to have her set as my favorite for about 20 more days in order to get her to 10 covers (assuming I don't pull one naturally).

First of all, that's ridiculous.

Secondly, I guess I'll be stuck with her faved for a while because you have to get these guys to 10.

I am just wondering if she'll be featured in the SHIELD Training before 20 days from now. I don't think she will, but they could make a jump ahead.

It would require a jump ahead. I think MODOK is on deck.

Karolina became Shardable when this season opened.

Your 4* Shard rate is skewed because you're hoarding LTs. There will come a time (and IIRC, it'll be after Carnage leaves) that you'll open hundreds of LTs in a day. You're gonna have a huge skew at that point.

I realize that, but I'm considering that as part of my current analysis.

I had previously figured that the point where I do my spree will be mid-March (the 19th, iirc). That is more than 20 days away, so for the purposes of figuring out whether I need to keep her sharded I had to use the calculations without including that spree, which is basically my current rate while hording.
On the plus side, taking a little longer with Karolina Dean may be ok since the next person (so unremarkable I already forget who it was) had some lucky pulls for me. I ended that opener with 7 covers, so I should only need to get one shard cover there (assuming a PVE placement and progression at some point before needed in the SHIELD Training).

Northstar.

Interestingly, as lame as I find him as a playable character, I'm finding he's useful as a Team-Up. For 6AP, you can remove a row (and gain the Yellow AP). Cheap and a very controlled board-shuffle.

I still want someone with your idea for board shuffle (rotate the board 90°).

I think that it would have been perfect on the Ancient One if they had made her, but I don't see that happening now. Maybe there will be someone apt when Dr. Strange 2 is released.

Along those lines, I would not mind having an effect that shifts columns or rows.

A B C D
E F G H
I J K L
M N O P

becomes

(column)
B C D A
F G H E
J K L I
N O P M
or
D A B C
H E F G
L I J K
P M N O

OR

(row)
E F G H
I J K L
M N O P
A B C D
or
M N O P
A B C D
E F G H
I J K L

The row shifting could be great against Ultron.