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However, you really did not make this clear in your opening post.
Yes, I see the ambiguity. Read the first sentence as: "I've often seen people comment that they "get bad rolls", and use it as an explanation why they lose all their games."
"I get bad rolls all the time!". No that's statistically untrue. Everyone gets bad rolls, statistically as many as you, just the majority of people don't rave about it.
Well, I played in a tournament where I fielded the new GSX Magneto and for all three rounds, managed to only make a total of 1 successfull attack roll with him....typical Parker luck, if of course my last name was Parker... :knockedou
"I get bad rolls all the time!". No that's statistically untrue. Everyone gets bad rolls, just the majority of people don't rave about it.
But if dice are truly random, would not some people actually get more low rolls, and others get more high rolls? Randomness would not necessarily equal a perfectly even distribution.
Out of 100 rolls, one person bight get 40 good rolls and 60 bad rolls. Another might get 60 good rolls and 40 bad rolls.
I'm not saying this is usually the case, but it is possible.
Quote : Originally Posted by Magnito
In other words, it's all Vlad's fault.
Quote : Originally Posted by Masenko
Though I'm pretty sure if we ever meet rl, you get a free junk shot on me.
Quote : Originally Posted by Thrumble Funk
Vlad is neither good nor evil. He is simply Legal.
You can do everything right.
Use the best pieces with tons of prob and outwit.
You can be the best player in the WORLD.
But if you suddenly can't roll above a 5, you won't win.
You can do everything right.
Use the best pieces with tons of prob and outwit.
You can be the best player in the WORLD.
But if you suddenly can't roll above a 5, you won't win.
But if you claim that the reason you, as the best player in the world, *never* win any tournaments or championships is because you *never* roll above a 5, then you seriously need a reality check (and a refresher course in probability math!)
Regards
Melkhor
From the ashes of Paragon City... it rises!
Another factor to consider is that the player can affect how much "luck" he needs in order to be successful. Powers such as perplex and probability control can alter the odds of hitting the target of an attack. One big difference in how I play now compared to my earlier days of clix is my use of perplex. I used to put it on the damage most of the time; now I almost always use it to increase my attack or decrease the target's defense unless I already need a 5 or less to hit. There's certainly something to be said for stacking the odds in your favor.
Quote : Originally Posted by Magnito
In other words, it's all Vlad's fault.
Quote : Originally Posted by Masenko
Though I'm pretty sure if we ever meet rl, you get a free junk shot on me.
Quote : Originally Posted by Thrumble Funk
Vlad is neither good nor evil. He is simply Legal.
The guy who won Worlds a couple of years ago, and then designed the Nightcrawler we all have learned to loathe, used to be the judge at my local venue. He couldn't roll higher than a 5 to save his life, so he made a lot of tactical decisions under the assumption that he was going to fail all of his rolls. Seems to have worked out well for him.
If you play assuming that you're always going to roll that 9, you're probably not going to do too well in the long run.
Isn't he the guy that won with that craptastic SIF team?
But if dice are truly random, would not some people actually get more low rolls, and others get more high rolls? Randomness would not necessarily equal a perfectly even distribution.
Out of 100 rolls, one person bight get 40 good rolls and 60 bad rolls. Another might get 60 good rolls and 40 bad rolls.
I'm not saying this is usually the case, but it is possible.
Wizkids dice seem to just roll really low for the most part. I know gurps players that use them, since lower rolls are good in that game.
This reminds me of the sports headline: Realistic Announcer Shouting How Kevin Durant Making His Last 4 Shots Has No Bearing On Whether He Will Make Next ShotAnd the article:
Quote
OKLAHOMA CITY—Amidst a hot streak Sunday in which Thunder star Kevin Durant hit four field goals in a row against the Raptors, excited and extremely realistic play-by-play man Brian Davis could be heard singing the forward's praises at the top of his lungs while carefully acknowledging that those previous positive results had no statistical influence on future shots. "It seems like he's on fire, but it's more a mathematical anomaly than anything!" Davis yelled, noting that Durant's lifetime field-goal percentage, weighted toward his current season tally, was a better indicator of whether or not he would make the next shot than anything that might be inferred by his hitting four in a row. "Durant pulls up and drains another—essentially the equivalent of flipping a coin five times in a row and getting heads each time! Don't think for a second this streak has to end on the next shot, either; consider each shot a discrete and independent event!" Davis lost his voice late in the fourth quarter while shouting about how the Thunder need to find a way to get the ball in Durant's hands, but only because he is their best player and not because he is in any way immune to the universal phenomena of chaos and randomness.
Gotta love the onion. So much truth in their nonsense. Good to remember next time you say: "these dice are really hot tonight!" after your 4th successful attack.
But yeah, as has been mentioned above, probablility is probability, and therefore, rolling a 2 is just as likely as rolling a 12. Either one you get, you've basically beaten the odds. It's just that one number in heroclix represents something really good, and the other represents something sucky.
I'm talking about games (plural). I've heard my friend say "I always lose because I get bad rolls".
I've heard the same from my friend. In his case, though, it seems to be partly true; in some 10 casual games we've played one-on-one, he's had trouble rolling better than 5 while I've had trouble ever rolling below 8.
However, there is a gap in the way we play our games that I think exacerbates the problem for him. He has a tendency to rely on a chief character who must make an alpha strike (say, a Hulk carrying a Meteorite) while I play more conservatively and don't rely on any single character. If he misses that must-hit attack, he's typically in trouble.
God is smarter than we are....
Visit Heroclixin'! Or check out my trade thread. Molly Hayes' KO list: HoT Ultron, HoT Thor, SI Iron Man, AV Wonder Man, SI Sentry, LE Diana Prince, R IC Ultron, Pretty Boy, CW Kang, IIM Thunderball, TW Catwoman, OP Red Hulk.
However, there is a gap in the way we play our games that I think exacerbates the problem for him. He has a tendency to rely on a chief character who must make an alpha strike (say, a Hulk carrying a Meteorite) while I play more conservatively and don't rely on any single character. If he misses that must-hit attack, he's typically in trouble.
Yeah, I know what you mean. If you're losing because of rolls, change your strategy.
I said to my friend, slightly dickishly, "Why do you always perplex damage instead of attack if you're convinced you get bad rolls?". No reply.