Same as the previously posted wolf odds with the numbers flipped.

86% chance of there being at least one vanilla townie.

4/7 (57% chance) for a vanilla townie role to fall into the player list. Assuming one has done so, there's a 3/6 chance of the other vanilla role doing the same. So 29% chance of two vanilla townies making it into the player list. (There's also a 29% chance of two wolf players).

Of course, these percentages get modified based on your knowledge of your role pm.

For a vanilla townie, the second vanilla townie role has a 50% chance to exist. 3 player slots. 3 empty slots. So I'm not surprised to see a second townie claim.

For any town power role, the initial vanilla townie has a 50% chance of existing (3 remaining player and empty slots) and the second townie only has a 40% chance of existing (2 out of 5 remaining slots going to players) for a net 20% chance of two vanilla townie players. Hence your surprise.

I don't see why a robber would lie and claim vanilla town in this situation.

How do you figure that?

Sorry, apparently I cannot math. I think it is actually 44%.

Or maybe it is something else. For a math minor, I am terrible at math.

Really, for anyone, I am terrible at math.

Dear Pax. I see you reading the thread. Wish you were here. Love Jack.

So, Carlos is either a robber, a wolf, or a seer - if everyone is being honest.

I'm excited this are rules that I did not play before!

What you mean? you mean the game is not balance? you mean the game is too easy? or too hard to get the goal?

I did not say Hello.

I see a posibility but I will wait to more talk..

Nobody is honest on a mafia game!

They are if all members are town.

Carlos, I switched you and JoH. What were you prior to me switching the two of you?

if you did that means you are the troublemaker like you say.

What makes things reeeeeaaallly confusing...

Are we suppose to role claim in mass?

you mean that there is the posiblity that there is no wolfs on the game?

IF the 1 or 2 wolfs are in the "table" 3 cards?

Correct. But if you are a wolf, JoH is one instead, now.