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well, ther are two sides to this. one, the player who knows more about the GAME. that would be player A. The other knows more about general strategy, and can put 2 and 2 together and figure it out. that is player B. If a player relies completely on experience, they will not know what to do in a new situation. the experienced player tends to follow a strict plan. and, as USSR the great said, might be totally unprepared for. but, if everything goes according to plan, they will probably win. on the other hand, we have the strategist. the problem with the strategist is that he doesn't know everthing about the game. there may be some old way of using a card he doesn't know. but the people who are always coming out with combos, new deck ideas and strategies, are B players.
in short terms:
Player A will probably win if the strategist is too inexperienced
Player B will probably win if the experienced don't have enough strategey.
I guess it takes an equal amount of both to be a better player. in my personal opinion, experience doesn't mean anything if you still suck.
In my opinion experience is much more important than skill, but skill is the thing that takes you to the highest level. I'm awful at this game. I know this. You should see me play new decks or with new sets--I play like an idiot. Therefore I play a LOT of games so that when that unusual situation comes up I have a better chance of catching it, and in general I do OK. The people who you see in top 8 after top 8 or with consistent money finishes--Prosak, Jacob, Wiitanen, Little, Jones, a few others--have both experience and skill.
Unlike when the game started, when Magic players could walk in and win because no one knew the right plays and they could play on instinct, now you have to actually be good at Vs to finish well. Skill alone isn't getting anyone anywhere any more.
I can tell you by far that skill is way more powerful then experience. Even if you've played since the begining of the game if you don't know when to make the right plays and some of the fundementals of VS startegy, you won't get anywhere.
I play Magic as well as VS and I know several players who have been playing since near the begining over 11 years ago. And you know what? Several of them still fail to put up any kind of numbers at tournaments because they just don't know the important fundementals of when to play what and what to do when. Experience is a little helpful, but if you don't have skill then you won't be sucessful.
Leaning VS isn't significantly different from learning other things. This question is like asking "What is more crucial to learning: the student's IQ, or how much the student studies?" The answer, obviously, is that both are important.
The way I look at it is that it's "skill" (strategy theory) times experience. The trick is maximization; whichever you're weaker in is the one you want to improve. If you've done a lot of playtesting, but you're still doing something wrong, it's unlikely that playing more games is going to help you figure out what your error is. On the other hand, if you've read a bunch of articles about VS, it's more likely that a little practice is going to help you than reading even more. The key, I think, is balance.
One thing I think needs to be pointed out or clarified. Lust because someone has been playing since MOR does not mean they have more experience.
A large part of experience is how often you actually play. I have been playing since MOR but I have a lot less experience that some of the newer players mainly because I always end up judging rather than playing. So my actual time spend behind a deck is significantly less than even new members of teams that are practicing for the PC.
Having said that, I like to think experience is most important with skill being the scale tipping factor between a good player and a great player.
I'm a skillful player but I am not a great vs player at all because I lack the experience. Pit me against another player with equal experience and I believe I will win most of the time. Pit me against any PC player and I will lose most of the time.
I think Experience becomes even more vital when talking about drafting such as in day 2 of the PC. You can have all the skill in the word when it comes to playing VS but drafting a strong deck is more about knowing the available cards in the set. That is more from experience rather than just skill.
Oh, I just realized one of the biggest factors of being a better player:
Luck. Period.
I mean, I guess this doesn't apply to all games, but certainly to card games. You can know when to make the smartest moves, how the wiliest plays work, et cetera, but if you don't have the resources to MAKE those plays, then what's it matter if you can strategize it? Of course, I suppose experience and skill can contribute to pull you through a drought of bad draws.
Either way, I still believe personal luck has a lot to do with it. :p