Makes sense, thanks.

I didn't notice the Santa giving out treats in this night's write-up. I read it about 5 minutes after waking up and I've had a cold all weekend, so I'll blame my terrible comprehension on that. Is there anything we can read into from these passages? Are the Santas me, or are they my targets?

Earlier I gave Immortal_Raven a slight town lean on the basis that it appeared Santa 1 was giving a Coke to Santa 2 on Night 1, and neither of these Santas seemed like they were hurting anyone, but I'm still not sure that's me, and of course I may have been misdirected.

Looking over the numbers, I suppose it seems more probable than I initially thought. If there were 4 scums initially (a tall task for us to overcome, tbh, especially with 2 rogues in play) then yesterday could have very easily been a lylo scenario.
But even if there were 3 scums initially, yesterday could have been dangerously close to lylo. Supposing Roy survives, they could then count on their own kill succeeding, knowing it down 5 vs 3 vs 1, plus the potential for a second kill, either from the vig or of their own doing somehow, to knock it down to 4 vs 3 vs 1 or 5 vs 3. Then they just need to sway one person the following day and they win. So I guess my immediate impulse to be skeptical of such a bold full-team ploy like that is dwindling now.

adamical
Afrcngy
JOH
Quebbster
Immortal_Raven
Sloonei
killingjoke101
TheDarkstone


RenegadeRoy posts about Immortal_Raven:

"I sort of have. I still think that when you play with powers as we do, chancing outing the Vig or cop on Day 1 is overall more harmful. But I can totally see the benefits. I just don't like flying blind and that's what day 1 pressure is to me."

"Agreed. Also, the other two games I've played with this format, we knew the mafia theme or at least had an idea because roles were actually posted. Made day one pressure more valuable since a role claim was, more or less, a good info grab."

They talked a little bit about the strategy of Day 1 pressure.

~~~

Immortal_Raven posts about RenegadeRoy:

"I also would like Roy to answer Silver's question."

Prodded Roy to engage with Silver, who was questioning his night actions.

"Lots of goofy stuff at play. My bigger issue is that both of you seem to be claiming the same power. Regardless of what results you guys got or what DBoy claimed, the powers here bother me."

This was directed at Roy and SL. Raven showed some measure of interest in the matter developing between them, but he didn't take a stance.

"Hmm, I was wrong about your power, but this bears looking into. DBoy claims to have MDed Grinner. Given their relationship and DBoy flipping town, I do believe it. That begs the question of Roy's results N1. I would infer that Roy was messed with either directly or indirectly.

Still, it gives me pause.

And Silver, may I ask why you pressured me earlier? Results or suspicion based?"

He seemed to accept SL's roleclaim here and the problems it implied with Roy's claimed actions. There's still no stance taken though.

"This I can oblige. No colored text since the yellow is annoying to read.

Silver-green
IR-green
Afrcngy-light green
kj101-light green
Roy-light green
Sloonei-yellow (no read)
MP- yellow (no read)
JoH-yellow-orange
adam- yellow-orange
Quebbs orange
DS-orange"

Roy is light green in his reads list. This is a curious placement given his acknowledgement of the discrepancy between SL's claim and Roy's actions.

"Right now, we have no concrete suspicions on anyone though. We have some convoluted night actions with a great deal of speculation. But right now the heat is on you. It is your choice to not claim, but it won't help you. Even if someone shows up and gives us a "I copped so-and-so as mafia", your silence is only serving to dig your own grave. And since Silver is dictating the pressure and he's got more town cred than anyone, you're also looking bad for not cooperating."

The relevance of this to Roy is only indirect, but I still want to highlight it. As is clear in the first two sentences, Raven wasn't willing to call Roy a "concrete suspicion" and instead he forgave him for "convoluted" night actions. Instead he took the opportunity to join the late Day 3 maneuver against Sloonei. The part I bolded is particularly gross.

"Heh. I understand the feeling. To be fair, anyone who doesn't trust you right now looks way bad.

As far a the confusing actions. One possibility is that Roy was MDED into someone else who also targeted Darkstone. anyone else target Darkstone last night? I did not.

Also, the more I read, the more I think the write-up is a double tap. Which is a change from my original thought of a doctoring."

This is about Roy, but I don't follow it because I'm not familiar with all of the acronyming. Someone else might understand it better.

"Huh, considering that if we lynch Roy and he's scum, you're suspect #1, this is way to helpful.

I'm, just trying to figure out if association means causation here."

This was directed at adamical. It should be noted that if they're all teammates, this post represents a three-way distancing of sorts.

"Considering I failed N1, I wouldn't put it past you to be lying about your power.

Of Quuebbs and Roy, the smarter lynch is Roy because if he is a scummer, he likely has night protection with the mafia still at full strength. Quebbs as a neutral has no such protection.

Just a question of whether I think Roy is scum. The problem here is that it's a hell of a gambit and it incriminates Drkstone and adam. Very early to try such a play.

Sorry, I'm all sorts of turned around and dealing with a sick child today. I'm not reading things as well as I should."

Raven seems to be making a concerted effort to resist scum reading Roy.

"Yes, one of many apparently.

vote Quebbs

I'm not sold on Roy enough to lynch him right now. Too many possibilities that some part of the information chain was messed with."

He eventually qualified his resistance to a Roy lynch in this way. The convolution of night actions confounded him too much.

This is notable, because it was a convolution of night actions claimed by Sloonei that eventually inspired his Sloonei vote.

"You did. I do hope you all are correct about Roy. Too many moving parts for me.

I do find it ironic that with everyone calling for reads and post interpretations, the top lynch candidate is the one whose night actions are suspect."

Too many moving parts for him to be comfortable lynching Roy. Not too many moving parts for him to be comfortable lynching Sloonei.

~~~

I think Raven looks like a high-probability teammate of Roy too. The worst stuff here is at the end of Day 3, when it appears to me he was willing to condemn Sloonei for the same reasons he forgave Roy. Inconsistency isn't inherently scummy, but when it comes to reads development like this there's a lot more potential for insincerity.

Disregard the list of players at the top of that. Copy/pasted it by mistake from my workpad.

Why adam over immortal_raven?

Simply the fact that Adam hasn't checked in yet today. A little pressure will hopefully make him more inclined to speak up once he does.

I figured this was the reason, I just like asking questions.
If one of them is town, who should we look at instead?

RenegadeRoy posts about Sloonei:

"Not true, given that we'll have info from Night 1. Could we have more info based on day 1 pressure? Sure, but like others have said, the risk/reward of day 1 pressure isn't that great.

I'm also not sure talk makes it harder for baddies to hide night 1. We're typically pretty good at targeting low posters, so most players here know to speak up on day 1 and going forward, especially if they're scum.

What does "PR" stand for? Don't believe I've heard that here before."

This was the first Roy post that tipped me off about him, and it was in response to Sloonei's comments about his Day 1 strategic mindset.

They turned this into a dialogue encompassing numerous posts. It didn't go anywhere relevant other than to make Roy look bad to me two cycles later. One could accuse Sloonei of providing Roy with some softball chatter to help him get involved. It's not a terribly inspiring accusation.

"I know I'm not lying, can't speak for Adam. I suppose it's possible that multiple people targeted Darkstone... and I was MD'd onto one of them... random but I dunno. I know my word at this point doesn't mean all that much given both of my night's results, but both would be pretty bad lies to make if I wasn't town.

Anyway, I'm going to throw a vote on Sloonei. I know you're new here and have a different playstyle, but your reaction to SL has my spidey-sense tinglin'.

vote: Sloonei"

"spidey-sense tinglin'"

I have no idea why Roy placed this vote and I don't think Roy had any idea either. It just looks like he wanted a place to dump it and took advantage of an opportunity presented by Sloonei's dialogue with SL.

"He did, didn't he? Pretty much in the section you quoted... and then in another post. We know nothing about you, and you've done really nothing but talk a lot while not saying all that much. Now you're refusing to do anything while under pressure."

Misrepresentation of Sloonei's conduct under pressure. The opportunism is obvious.

"This is not true and you're seemingly purposely mincing my words. I've already said the reason I voted for you was because of your response (or lack thereof) to SL. I actually said that a few times I think."

"seemingly purposefully mincing my words"

Adverb salad is scummy guys. Avoid adverb salad. It's also a telltale sign that a scum is talking to someone not on their team. Great look for Sloonei.

There's more content like this and I don't think it's necessary to highlight all of it. Eventually Roy took advantage of the opportunity provided by adamical to vote Sloonei and save his own skin.

~~~

I could also talk about Sloonei's posts about Roy, but I don't think I need to. Sloonei is a teammate of Roy's in about 0.3% of universes, in my opinion. Roy's posts make it pretty obvious Sloonei is not on his team.

RenegadeRoy's posts about killingjoke101:

None.

~~~

killingjoke101's posts about RenegadeRoy:

"Every once and awhile, someone will mod a vanilla game where there are no "power roles", but as Roy stated, in almost every game everyone has roles.

I kind of prefer it that way as I feel it's more engaging/interesting when everyone has something that they can do at night (or during the day in some cases)."

A little neutral chatter about role structure.

~~~

That's it. There's not enough to condemn or exonerate KJ. I'd say he remains within the POE grouping at least.

RenegadeRoy posts about The Darkstone:

"I tracked Adam and he targeted Darkstone. What about you, Silver?"

Confirmed Adam's targeting of Darkstone.

"I know I'm not lying, can't speak for Adam. I suppose it's possible that multiple people targeted Darkstone... and I was MD'd onto one of them... random but I dunno. I know my word at this point doesn't mean all that much given both of my night's results, but both would be pretty bad lies to make if I wasn't town."

Another mention which is more circumstantial than direct.

~~~

The Darkstone's posts about RenegadeRoy:

"Darkstone - green
Silver - green (This was orange last phase, but I really gave it a good thinking)
IR- yellow
Afrcngy - yellow
kj101 - yellow
Roy - yellow
Sloonei -yellow (Mostly town vibes, but I doubt he missed an action)
adam - yellow
JoH - orange (By default, i always never trust jack)
Quebbs - orange
MovingPictures - orange (75% scum)"

Roy is in the yellow center of his rainbow list. Meh.

~~~

That's it. There's not much to say. My least favorite thing about Darkstone is that he voiced interest in the things I had to say at the end of Day 3, but he never personally involved himself in that dialogue. He left his vote parked on me instead, which is bizarre. He had an opportunity to make a vote that influenced the end result and didn't take it.

He's a town ID so that's a nice thing for him until I have reason to suspect a Godfather is in play.

Based on a combination of hard evidence and the interactive reads I've compiled (including the JOH post I lost), here's a rank. Least likely to be Roy's teammate to most likely:

Sloonei
Quebbster
Afrcngy
The Darkstone
JOH
killingjoke101
Immortal_Raven
adamical

Just realized something... Sloonei, do you think you are the Coke Santa?

I don't know. I've been asking others if they think I'm the Coke Santa. I don't know what my role would look like in the write-ups.

I was hoping maybe your role PM would give you some clue.
Oh well, I'll just share my thought since I am about to head to bed: I tried to target Darkstone last night and stole a red fridge. It sounds to me like I targeted the Coke Santa, and if that is in fact Sloonei that means that I was misdirected one way or another. I don't see anyone using a controlled misdirect on me, so either I was randomly misdirected (possible) or Darkstone was busdriven with/pushed under Sloonei. If the latter is the case, the cop reading on Darkstone is in fact of Sloonei. Considering that Darkstone was touted as scummy last phase, I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be Mafia and was protected by a Mafia busdrive/push.

In places I've normally played, bus drivers change the target of a player and it is reflected in the results. Under those conditions, if I targeted Darkstone and hit Sloonei instead, my role result would have looked like something like this:

Sloonei is aligned with the town.

Instead of:

Darkstone is aligned with the town.

Those are stated in my own words. My result was the latter, not the former. Would that be typical or atypical of a bus-driven result around here?