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I'm not, because it's simply not true. It's entirely possible for someone to roll literally nothing but crit hits (or crit misses), every single roll, for their entire lives. Now, it's statistically unlikely, even very very unlikely, but it's in no way impossible. Similarly, there are going to be people who average a 4 or a 10 instead of the much more likely 7. Again, it's unlikely, although not as unlikely... The 'law of averages' only says what's likely to happen over a large number of samples, not what must or will happen. Over a large number of people, even though it's much more likely for each individual to be average, it's also likely that some people will be anomalies. It would, in fact, be anomalous if there weren't anomalous people...
Tenketsu took the words right out of my mouth.
Quote : Originally Posted by Magnito
In other words, it's all Vlad's fault.
Quote : Originally Posted by Masenko
Though I'm pretty sure if we ever meet rl, you get a free junk shot on me.
Quote : Originally Posted by Thrumble Funk
Vlad is neither good nor evil. He is simply Legal.
And the OP is using a sweeping generalization when the laws of probability dictate that some of these people are quite likely to be losing strictly because of bad dice rolls. Not only is it possible that it is solely due to bad luck...it is probable that in some cases (note, I am not saying most, many, usual, etc.) the player loses because of their "bad luck". I will grant that those cases are probably far fewer than the actual cases where people blame bad luck, but a sweeping generalization is unfair in the cases where the claim is accurate.
Quote : Originally Posted by get_1
The "laws of probability" dictate that everyone's average roll is the same.
Untrue.
Quote : Originally Posted by tenketsu
I'm not, because it's simply not true. It's entirely possible for someone to roll literally nothing but crit hits (or crit misses), every single roll, for their entire lives. Now, it's statistically unlikely, even very very unlikely, but it's in no way impossible. Similarly, there are going to be people who average a 4 or a 10 instead of the much more likely 7. Again, it's unlikely, although not as unlikely... The 'law of averages' only says what's likely to happen over a large number of samples, not what must or will happen. Over a large number of people, even though it's much more likely for each individual to be average, it's also likely that some people will be anomalies. It would, in fact, be anomalous if there weren't anomalous people...
Tenketsu said it better than me, but it's the same idea. Rep to you, tenketsu.
Well, I AM pretty awesome.
An understanding of the law of large numbers leads to a realization that what appear to be fantastic improbabilities are not remarkable at all but, merely to be expected.
So while dice rolls shouldn't be a crutch to explain why you lose, I think it does play a huge factor for some people. I see certain guys make all the right moves, but when they can't hit a roll it just blows up.
I don't know. Maybe it's my play style, but I make moves that, even if I miss my rolls, still put me in a win-win situation. Rarely does a torrid run of missed rolls simply leave me in a bent-over position.
(This, of course, is assuming I haven't just flat-out FAILed in some other egregious fashion.)
God is smarter than we are....
Visit Heroclixin'! Or check out my trade thread. Molly Hayes' KO list: HoT Ultron, HoT Thor, SI Iron Man, AV Wonder Man, SI Sentry, LE Diana Prince, R IC Ultron, Pretty Boy, CW Kang, IIM Thunderball, TW Catwoman, OP Red Hulk.
My bad rolls are legendary among my play group. Some of my more infamous bad rolling games are:
D&D minis: Need anything but a 1 on a 20sided dice to hit, roll four 1s in a row.
D&D minis: Need anything but a 1 on a d20 or my Dragon turns to stone and need a 3+ for my other Dragon not to turn to stone, both got turned to stone in the same game.
Star Wars Minis (this weekend): Need an 8+ worse case to kill an uggnaught and miss first 3 shots, took the fourth to kill a 3pt model.
Have a whole list of these stories. Sure i roll good sometimes, probably the same amount as bad, but it is the circumstances that makes the difference. In Heroclix, when i hit with a pog for one damage and miss with my Superman it is one good roll and one bad roll, but i still call it bad luck. By the way, it is bad luck and not low rolls. This weekend I played Mansions of Madness, all my friends joked that i would be good at this game because low rolls are good in it and sure enough I rolled many tens (auto fails) and died very quickly. Still love dice games and play way to many of them, even if the dice gods hate me.
I'm talking about games (plural). I've heard my friend say "I always lose because I get bad rolls".
Don't really have the heart to say "No, you just make awful decisions ingame". So unleashing my annoyance here
I think the key word in that statement is ALWAYS. If you always lose, it is not the fault of the dice. If your skills/planning are adequate, you will lose some and win some. You will not always lose.
Let's Play "Whoizzit?"
My Avatar is an as-yet-un-clixed character. If you know who it is, be the first respondant to correctly identify this character I'll send you some free rep!
Man, now I know why people don't bother trying to "win" online arguments.
It's impossible, even if you're right.
On this, we agree.
Well, I AM pretty awesome.
An understanding of the law of large numbers leads to a realization that what appear to be fantastic improbabilities are not remarkable at all but, merely to be expected.
i stopped reading this around halfway through page 3.
but i would like to comment on luck:
i have ever claimed to always lose to luck. in fact sometimes i'll even say "aww i shouldn't have done that. now you can _______________" to acknowledge i did something stupid.
but when this happens you know you've got bad luck:
missing every roll but 3 in a 1000 point game where over 50% of your build is from WoS & almost 80% of your opponent's is older than avengers is bad luck.
it doesn't help that 2 of those 3 successful attacks were probbed away & the 3rd got healed back.
whats worse is that my opponent even said "wow. i shouldn't have won that." paraphrased a bit.
for the next 4 months i missed by exactly 1 most of the time.
You want to hear abought bad luck. Try Last round of 10 turnys in a row, just to lose to the same player. The 11th was my lucky game. I beet him by 2 points. Soa remimber every point counts.
i'd say about 75 percent of heroclix is strategy and team building, the other 25 percent is luck. this can cause you to lose some games you should win, and win some games you should lose. it's something you can't control, so just accept that.
But if you claim that the reason you, as the best player in the world, *never* win any tournaments or championships is because you *never* roll above a 5, then you seriously need a reality check (and a refresher course in probability math!)
Just saying.
You can be the best player in the world, but if you roll 5 crit misses in a game, you're probably going to lose.