Who knows. Its all speculation on both sides.
I work for a $50+ Billion a year in sales and revenue per year company. Even we still fail spectacularly at forecasting sometimes.

At the size of your company the failures could get quite spectacular. I'm at the $150 million now and ours can get pretty nasty too. One of our quality matrices is OTD, which encompasses quantity of parts ordered as well as delivery time. So if we under produce or deliver late it goes against our quality rating. If we have a 95% rating it is unacceptable, a 92% rating is a failure and we are put on notice. Which isn't quite as serious as it sounds, it would adversely affect our ability to bid new jobs. If we got worse it could get quite bad for us. I would love to see FFG At 92%. Although they may be, different industries have different quality matrices and/or standards. Comparing performance may be apples to apples or apples to oranges, I don't really know what kind of ODT standards gaming companies have.

It should be much easier for FFG to get a handle on their forecasts.

I prefer to buy locally too. Which is why I pre-ordered (in fact pre-paid) for my 2 boxes of Imperial Aces at my FLGS. I believe in pre-ordering because it helps both me and the FLGS:

- I get the product when it comes out, guaranteed

- they get a guaranteed, no-risk sale


Why do you assume they are missing their forecasts?

It could very well be that they choose to produce smaller print runs on purpose. Maybe they don't want to invest in warehouse space, maybe they are risk-averse, maybe the manufacturer they chosen to go with just has a small capacity (or it's divided among their various products).

Product not on the shelves is definitely not the best case situation for the players, and it probably causes local stores money (pushing customers online because they can't wait), but I doubt it really hurts FFG. These ships aren't limited-run, they'll be on the shelves eventually. And when they are, people will buy them.

Personally, I hate the delays. But I have to deal with similar issues with the products WK produces. I don't see a big difference, except for the time to resolve delays. WK will delay a couple weeks, maybe a month. FFG will delay a quarter.

My local stores won't accept prepaid for X-Wing products, they put you on a list. They've been burned too many times by allocation and not getting all the product they ordered. They don't want to be in a position to have to tell a customer they don't have the product he already paid for and don't know when they will get some more so here's your money back.



They won't need warehouse space for product they sell. While I don't know for certain I suspect their distributors warehouse their product.

If your supplier can't meet demands you find an additional supplier or a new one.

In my business if we aren't going to deliver on time we farm the work out to another company. We won't make as much profit on the order but the customer will still get his parts on time. There are solutions to these types of problems. Our solution wouldn't work for a gaming company, but an additional supplier certainly could.

When I worked the automotive industry we had to have a contingency plan for how we would deliver on our contracts if a natural disaster struck our company (which, ironically happened) and we couldn't produce parts, or if one of our suppliers failed us, how would we make sure it didn't impact our customer. I know this may sound extreme but is the reality of some industries. A little better delivery of product should be a small thing to ask of a business, or maybe my expectations are higher (to high) because that is the business expectations I'm used to.

Edit: Wow, I've gone far afield. Now it's time to return to our originally scheduled program.

Most companies pay the distributor to warehouse them.

And potentially risk quality by doing so.

Difference being that you have competition for whatever you make (I'm assuming). If you can't get parts to the customer, the customer will buy elsewhere. We have no "elsewhere" for X-Wing minis. Sure there are different games people can move on to, but most won't because of a delay. While you're waiting for the next wave of TIE Interceptors to come in, you're still playing. Heck, chances are you already have TIE Interceptors... you just want a couple more for your squad.

And like elfholme said, I don't think it's hurting them. They put out another wave of Y-Wings not that long ago and those things are still selling like mad. Yes, it takes them longer to get it done but people still buy it when it does come out.

Yes we have much competition. Lack of competition is not a good reason to disappoint your customers. Their poor delivery of product does cause dissatisfied customers. The bottom line is they can do a better job on delivery and should be striving to improve. I'm pretty sure you don't disagree with that sentiment.

As to whether it's hurting them, I'm sure it is, even if they are selling every mini they can make, failing to get product to all your potential customers can't be considered a positive. Most business I've been involved with are constantly looking to improve their market share.

You've seen through me, I'm just greedy and can't wait to get my 5th thru 10th interceptor.

Edit: I forgot to address your quality point, which is a shame since it's my profession.

There is no need to risk the quality of the product. You put your suppliers through a vendor qualification process before they get the business and you hold true to your companies quality standards. Bringing a second supplier up to speed is frequently easier than the first. You already have an idea of the potential problems in the manufacturing process because you worked them out with your current supplier, that is not to say new problems won't arise, but as long as you stick to your internal quality standards you can work those out too.

Once a company I worked for needed an additional supplier because our current supplier's capacity was maxed out. The new supplier made better parts cheaper, so when our demand went down and our contract with our original supplier was complete we gave him a chance to re-quote the business. The suppliers reversed roles, the new one became our primary and the previous became our secondary.

Not at all. However, if the alternative is the "WK method" of pumping stuff out every month with lower quality and massive reuse (like AW) or dump everything at once and never reprint again (like HC), then I'll take the FFG method of an initial delay with constant reprints.

"Selling every mini they can make" and "improve their market share" are kind of polar opposites, no? They would need to add capacity and maybe they're too risk adverse to do so. Maybe they don't have the capital to do so. Maybe they're too concerned with quality to do so. It's impossible to say.

I've got 3 of the regular ones... 2 Imperial Aces packs... and waiting on my store to get more Imperial Aces packs so I can buy one from them (supporting the local store and all).

Mine as well, although I think we're in different categories (software quality here).

Maybe so, but there's still a cost involved. And I can tell you first hand (and I'm sure you've had experience with it as well)... a vendor will promise you the sun and moon to get you're business. The reality of what they can and do deliver is often times something else entirely.

The companies quality standards differ, no debate there. The limited print run is a different subject, but I understand if you don't like it.


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I meant share of the total miniatures market or gaming market in this case. Every X-Wing miniature they fail to sell could be an Attack Wing mini or something else. The total market only contains so many dollars and they should get every one of them they can. If they don't get enough product into the stores they are losing an opportunity.

If I'm greedy, you're a hoarder. Seriously though I definitely get supporting the local economy.


My background is in manufacturing. Primarily I've worked the agriculture equipment, automotive, and aircraft industries. My companies have been a manufacturing house that designed then manufactured their own product, to a plastic injection molding company, to machine shops big and small.


If a company has a good vendor qualification process I really wouldn't worry about starting up a second supplier. I would be more concerned with quality issues if we started to squeeze more out of our current supplier than he was capable of handling.

Ah, that is a pity. My store takes pre-orders and orders extra for the shelves, so if they get allocated (as happened with Aces), the stock on the shelves is what is cut back. We haven't had a problem, but i do understand the concern.

A lot of what you say makes sense in certain industries. I work for one of the largest IT companies in the world. We do many of the things you propose. I'm not sure it all fits a small company in this industry though.

While I understand (even share) the angst at FFG's distribution, they seem to know what they are doing. They probably realize that the average player will buy X number of each ship. They can produce that number right away at a reduced profit by increasing capacity and setting up more warehouse capacity, or take a more measured approach and realize more long-term profit. Maybe there are some players who are lost when they have to wait to get the latest ships, but I suspect that is a fairly small percentage of their target market.

WK takes the opposite view. Their marketing strategy seems to be to bring as much to market as possible, as quickly as possible. This has resulted in pretty much the opposite complaints - they are actually losing customers because they produce too much product too quickly, and players don't feel like they can keep up. This hasn't hit AW much yet because the game hasn't matured, but it's definitely true with Heroclix, and I think it's a risk with this game as well. There is already some disappointment around LE ships for the core factions that fetch high prices on the secondary market.

Yeah I get what your saying. I've used examples from personal experience that may not apply to a game company. My point is there are solutions. A second supplier is possible for companies if all sizes.

If the pattern for FFG product holds true, by the end of this week maybe a couple of weeks on the outside there will not be Imperial Aces on store shelves and there will still be people who want them. The supply on the internet will probably be almost gone too. Then it will be 3 to 6 months before they become available again. It doesn't have to be like this. They could make enough product to meet the demand for the first 3-4 months after release instead of the first 2-3 weeks. I'm not even sure they make enough to meet the initial demand. It's just not good when customers can't get product 3-4 weeks after initial release. Remember when there was a secondary market for X-wing products at an inflated price because demand was greater than supply. They can fix this if they work at it.

Edit: On a positive personal note I did get mine today. My flgs had 2 left for retail after I got mine and they believe that's all they will get until the second print run. I guarantee you they could sell more than that before they finally get more in.

Ok a couple things. I worked in injection molding for 6 years. I have set up machines, run machines and sent out the items. The FFG problem is they have no oversite. It doesn't take as long as people think to get items made and put out there. You should have to wait no more than 2 months for reprinted ships. You would be how surprised it how short of a time it takes to make car parts and get them out. Most machines are shooting 6 to 8 minis at a time for abotu 45 seconds up to 1:15 seconds. that is it. QA it and it adds very little time. A box can be filled real quick and sent to the line where the apps are put on. This takes bit more time up to 5 minutes and that is about that. The stands are blanks they most likely have thousands of at any given time and those are made quicker and more at a time. Packages are made from blown plastic in molds, more injection andagain almost not time because they have ton of blanks.

Cards and paper are easy and can be quite quick to make. The have all those on digital file somewhere and easy to produce.

The only hitch is setting a mold that can take up to 45 minutes to get changed and started up. real easy, like I said I did it for 6 years.


But I think I have figured out what their business model is. Looking at everyone's post there is one all important fact. The stores that sell sell it quick and readily. They often have shortages and high demand and that is good business sense. Maybe FFG doesn't want or need AW sales if they can sell their much smaller run every single time.

In short gentlemen you are being played. A shortage makes people buy more and more. Ask the venues about FI shortage early on. They run small runs because people are so worried about them selling out. Good business sense if they want to sell this in small sets after all they have many games.


Something else, my Venue has 3 or 4 sets of Aces, I might see what the owner would do about them if people are interested. I want to get a set for myself but I have a Disney trip to pay for.




Back to the Dragons though. I get all the ships in AW because it builds a fleet. Many choices many ships. I will most likely get every named ship that comes out if I can but with DAW I only need a few to play. Not going to get it all and get just a couple ones. Looking at Blue and Green and maybe Black for the evil dragons with most likely Silver, Copper and Brass for the good ones. The ground troops are a pass unless they are good.

Beyond that unless the dragon is a name I want I will skip. Thraxata the Red would love nice and IcingDeath the White would be cool but beyond that Only Tiamat (or as I think of her Takhisis) will make me happy.

Unless they do beyond the basic 10.

I really don't think FFG not minding a period of something being unavailable while the reprint is being produced does not mean they are playing us. I'm pretty certain that the current issue is that the initial wave sold through quickly, but there are more waves coming on boats. Just like how the HWK seemed to sell out at first. I'm patient, and I know FFG will always deliver in keeping an active game in print with all components. I didn't get all of the A-wings and Interceptors I wanted in last years great Wave 2 drought. I did get everything before the Wave 1 drought, though. I doubt we will see anything like that ever again. I'm pretty certain they dropped Dust to focus their production time on X-wing.

While there may be solutions, we have to keep in mind that FFG produces a lot of games besides X-Wing, therefore they have other product schedules and other costs to consider.

In other words, without knowing the specifics of their cash flow and production schedules, we don't know how well they are managing their product lines. They could be under-producing things or they could be producing exactly what they need to maintain the flow of all of their products.

In order to produce more of something they may have to take money away from something else and then you'd possibly have that other product getting under-produced. It might actually be a smart business move on their part to stay within a certain production standard and then use the revenue generated from the first run of a product to fund the second run of said product.

Pretty much what I am thinking. They have many games and if they keep XW small but selling out it lets them get extras so they don't have to store product somewhere.

This is why my original point was a need to improve sales forecasting. A good sales forecast is even more important for companies that don't manufacture their own products because they lose some ability to control the manufacturing process.