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Explanation for those who don't know me or my ways: the following set of large post will be what I call "interactive reads". I am specifically looking through the posts of the deceased confirm scum (RenegadeRoy) and separately the posts of every living player to find clues about his relationships with everyone. This has probably been the most effective method I've known of identifying scum teammates. It's all likely to be subjective though so I always welcome feedback and dissenting perspectives.
NOTE: Since the post histories here don't include entire posts and instead are reduced versions, I have done this in a roundabout way and won't be able to use actual quote boxes without it taking 5x longer. Roy's comments are colored red. adamicals comments are colored orange.
~~~
RenegadeRoy posts about adamical:
"I tracked Adam and he targeted Darkstone. What about you, Silver?"
Roy used Adam as a mechanism by which to initiate his early attack on Darkstone.
"I know I'm not lying, can't speak for Adam. I suppose it's possible that multiple people targeted Darkstone... and I was MD'd onto one of them... random but I dunno. I know my word at this point doesn't mean all that much given both of my night's results, but both would be pretty bad lies to make if I wasn't town."
This was in response to Silver Lantern suggesting he may have caught them both in a flub.
These are the only direct mentions of adamical in his post history if I have correctly understood how to search it. I'm not used to this interface.
~~~
adamical posts about RenegadeRoy:
"To answer Jack's question, I get a town read on Destructo and scum from Quebbs, Roy and Darkstone. All just first impressions though, nothing I can put my finger on."
Unexplained early scum read on Roy among two others. This was just his fourth post of the game.
"I want to hear more from Roy and Destructoboy before I decide if we should lynch Destructoboy."
Prod to hear more from these two before agreeing lynch Destructoboy.
I think this is a reads list from most town to most scum. Roy is third from the bottom.
"I think Silver's analysis is the most likely option; the mafia have a tracker, and Roy used that information even though he didn't personally obtain it. I definitely targeted Darkstone, which Darkstone confirmed."
Associates Roy's successful track of him to Darkstone on Night 1 with a "scum tracker" role that Roy may or may not have himself held
"I usually am pretty suspicious of quiet players. So there's a few this game that fall under that umbrella, but right now I'm most suspicious of Roy, who I felt like tried to buddy up to me with his tracking results. Buddying up to town is pretty typical mafia behavior."
If they're teammates, the distancing effort becomes more severe at this point. It might mean more had he not specifically tried to prevent a Roy lynch by lynching Sloonei instead.
~~~
To me, this all looks like textbook scum distancing. I'd be pretty damned surprised if adamical is not on Roy's team. From the start he voiced some light measure of suspicion on Roy, but he never qualified that suspicion with any meaningful rationale and he never actually pursued a Roy lynch. That distancing became more severe as the game progressed, but still adamical never acted on it in any way that could promote a Roy lynch. Indeed, when the time finally came to lynch Roy he cooked up an excuse to move the lynch over to Sloonei instead. It's all marvelously fake.
I think this is obvious, and not "too obvious". adamical is scum and should probably be today's lynch.
Hey JJJ, are you familiar with our multi-quote function?
I am! Though I admit I am not accustomed to using multi-quote since none of my more regular sites have it. My struggle here is that I use CTRL+F to search individual players' post histories for keywords or names. That doesn't quite work here since the post histories don't show entire posts, they only show portions of posts.
So instead I copied all of Roy's posts individually into Word so I can CTRL+F them there. If you or anyone else knows of a more efficient way to resolve this problem I'd be most appreciative.
I'm going to augment the hard evidence with interactive reads. One immediate observation I have of this culture: hyper-focus on night actions and limited focus on behavior. That's not a criticism, just what I see in this first game I've played.
My best work tends to come in behavioral analysis and that's what I'll do now. I might find something interesting in one of the non-suspects.
There are none. I don't see any mention of Afrcngy in any of Roy's posts.
~~~
Afrcngy posts about RenegadeRoy:
"@cbob - Great summary
@RenegadeRoy - I agree!"
This probably doesn't mean much.
~~~
That's it. These two didn't acknowledge each other much at all in this game while Roy was alive. Under some circumstances that might concern me, but I also think teammates at least make some effort to interact with one another publicly. It really depends upon the people. Afrcngy's post history itself is quite short so I suspect an interactive read with him would be scarce of content regardless of who the other person being investigated is. This doesn't bother me or inspire me.
Just lost a huge post assessing JOH because the site thought I might be a robot.
Cliff Notes:
There are valid reasons to be concerned with JOH. Some of it feels like tinfoil, but that doesn't mean it's not worth discussing.
JOH: you started with a town read on Roy. That's not immediately alarming, but as your read slowly transitioned to scum on Roy, the progression wasn't easy to follow in your posts. There were a couple examples of you discussing Roy at length, primarily for his night actions and the controversy associated with them, where you'd arrive at a conclusion about his honesty (you felt he was probably being truthful), but not a conclusion about his alignment.
I had no idea what your read on Roy was until you lynched him instead of Sloonei. So the potential for a bus exists and must be explored. Please talk to me about these assertions and show me how your read on Roy developed in this game.
Explanation for those who don't know me or my ways: the following set of large post will be what I call "interactive reads". I am specifically looking through the posts of the deceased confirm scum (RenegadeRoy) and separately the posts of every living player to find clues about his relationships with everyone. This has probably been the most effective method I've known of identifying scum teammates. It's all likely to be subjective though so I always welcome feedback and dissenting perspectives.
NOTE: Since the post histories here don't include entire posts and instead are reduced versions, I have done this in a roundabout way and won't be able to use actual quote boxes without it taking 5x longer. Roy's comments are colored red. adamicals comments are colored orange.
~~~
RenegadeRoy posts about adamical:
"I tracked Adam and he targeted Darkstone. What about you, Silver?"
Roy used Adam as a mechanism by which to initiate his early attack on Darkstone.
"I know I'm not lying, can't speak for Adam. I suppose it's possible that multiple people targeted Darkstone... and I was MD'd onto one of them... random but I dunno. I know my word at this point doesn't mean all that much given both of my night's results, but both would be pretty bad lies to make if I wasn't town."
This was in response to Silver Lantern suggesting he may have caught them both in a flub.
These are the only direct mentions of adamical in his post history if I have correctly understood how to search it. I'm not used to this interface.
~~~
adamical posts about RenegadeRoy:
"To answer Jack's question, I get a town read on Destructo and scum from Quebbs, Roy and Darkstone. All just first impressions though, nothing I can put my finger on."
Unexplained early scum read on Roy among two others. This was just his fourth post of the game.
"I want to hear more from Roy and Destructoboy before I decide if we should lynch Destructoboy."
Prod to hear more from these two before agreeing lynch Destructoboy.
I think this is a reads list from most town to most scum. Roy is third from the bottom.
"I think Silver's analysis is the most likely option; the mafia have a tracker, and Roy used that information even though he didn't personally obtain it. I definitely targeted Darkstone, which Darkstone confirmed."
Associates Roy's successful track of him to Darkstone on Night 1 with a "scum tracker" role that Roy may or may not have himself held
"I usually am pretty suspicious of quiet players. So there's a few this game that fall under that umbrella, but right now I'm most suspicious of Roy, who I felt like tried to buddy up to me with his tracking results. Buddying up to town is pretty typical mafia behavior."
If they're teammates, the distancing effort becomes more severe at this point. It might mean more had he not specifically tried to prevent a Roy lynch by lynching Sloonei instead.
~~~
To me, this all looks like textbook scum distancing. I'd be pretty damned surprised if adamical is not on Roy's team. From the start he voiced some light measure of suspicion on Roy, but he never qualified that suspicion with any meaningful rationale and he never actually pursued a Roy lynch. That distancing became more severe as the game progressed, but still adamical never acted on it in any way that could promote a Roy lynch. Indeed, when the time finally came to lynch Roy he cooked up an excuse to move the lynch over to Sloonei instead. It's all marvelously fake.
I think this is obvious, and not "too obvious". adamical is scum and should probably be today's lynch.
Fascinating.
I feel I have become a better mafia player in the past year (which does not help with the Silver Lantern and friends theme song, "Never Ever Ever Trust Jack") but there are some things I'm still missing.
Continually accusing/reading as scum but never following through or arguing the point = distancing. That's much more useful than mafia accusing each other = distancing. It's like "no ####" but also "why haven't I been able to express this in words/how often have I confused distancing and shade throwing because I didn't have this nailed down in my head?"
Quote : Originally Posted by JaggedJimmyJay
I am! Though I admit I am not accustomed to using multi-quote since none of my more regular sites have it. My struggle here is that I use CTRL+F to search individual players' post histories for keywords or names. That doesn't quite work here since the post histories don't show entire posts, they only show portions of posts.
So instead I copied all of Roy's posts individually into Word so I can CTRL+F them there. If you or anyone else knows of a more efficient way to resolve this problem I'd be most appreciative.
I feel your pain.
Quote : Originally Posted by Sloonei
Where are you leaning today?
Adam or Raven.
JTrips puts forth a good case against Adam. I hate near everything Immortal Raven has said or done today on top of the last minute switch yesterday and the feeling that lesser evidence against you was worth pursuing while greater evidence against Roy was not. Adam hasn't said anything today and needs to.
Ultimately, a good portion of me not switching my vote yesterday was because a Roy lynch would be much more useful to the town, especially if he flipped scum. The evidence was slightly stronger. I didn't like the way either of you handled the accusations but in fairness, you were busy.
This is all to say that I'm convinced you are town. None of the players I trust more than you or about as much as you have put forth any negative reads towards you and the two players that have are my top two lynch suspects so their accusations mean jack and squat even if there is some logic to the night action bit of their attack.
FYI dragger roles are common but easily faked by a common mafia role, the ghost writer. I think that's why the dragger claim isn't buying you a lot of credit.
But yeah. Adam or Raven. Probably both scum. Assuming there's a fourth mafia member...probably Darkstone. Maybe KJ. But there might not be a forth member and we have some time to figure it out.