Feel like everyone around you has a leg up in tactics? Experience may be the best teacher, but we want to help you shape up your strategy. Heroclix has a lot of rules, which also means a lot of loopholes, synergies, and restrictions. Knowing what those are and more tactically practical ways to exploit them can help you see the game in new ways and come up with your own variations. It’s not quite meta, but it’s still Practically Tactical!

We have another article from DrEpidemic this week. This week he has decided to expand on his Odds Table to talk about Shape Change and Super Senses. So, without further ado, here's DrEpidemic:

In the last “What are the Odds?” article, we dove into the core probabilities of hitting with an attack roll, and examined the effect of modifying those dice rolls adding or subtracting to the rolled results. Some of the core powers such as perplex, combat reflexes, energy shield deflection, close combat expert, and ranged combat expert as well as others. Today we’re going to focus on the two defensive powers that can entirely prevent you from targeting (shape change) and hitting (super senses).

These two powers, shape change and super senses, are similar in the sense that each succeed for a targeted figure on a roll of 5-6 (33.3% chance of success to prevent/evade an attack). They are obviously slightly different though as shape change comes in the form of a defender die roll to determine whether they are a viable target BEFORE the attack. If the defender rolls a successful shape change, then the attacker can choose another viable target (if one exists), else they receive an action token even with no attack. Super senses occurs AFTER a successful attack roll to see if the defender is able to evade the successful attack on a roll of 5-6.

As we established last week, the standard probability of a hit is summarized in Table 1.
Table 1. Probability of a Successful Attack by Necessary Attack Roll on 2d6

Since shape change and super senses both succeed on a roll of 5-6, the overall probability of successfully targeting and hitting a defending figure is the same (as noted in Table 2) with the caveat that a successful shape change roll for a single defender could just divert the attack to another existing viable target with its own probability of a successful attack based on its defense rating and powers.

Table 2. Probability of Successfully Targeting and Hitting a Defender with Shape Change and/or Super Senses


So, assuming there is only one viable target for an attacker, the over probability of targeting and successfully attacking a defending figure is the same with shape change and super senses. While I admittedly have many times forgotten that my figures have shape change (especially when they are traited) and hence forget to roll for them prior to an opponent’s attack, you can see via this table that these powers are noticeably potent. It can take that key attack of needing a 7 or better with a base probability of a 58% hit and reduce it to less than a 39% chance to hit. These powers can reduce a 72% chance of hitting with a 6 or greater and make it a sub 50% chance to hit!

Further there are some figures out there (I’m aware of multiple Daredevil figures – DP202 and WKM-15-014; Mercury WF-043; and I’m sure others that I’m not aware) that can have successful super senses rolls on 4-6 and hence the resulting impact on a successful hit is even further reduced (via column 5 on Table 2). That 58% chance of a successful hit of 7 or better drops to 29% if the target can successfully evade with a roll of 4-6 on super senses.



There are even some figure that have BOTH shape change and super senses, which make them near impossible to hit, even when the attack roll itself seems viable. Take for example, Menagerie, from the Superman/Wonder Woman set (#016).



She’s a common in the set, but as a judge at the Pre-Release event for SMWW, I remember watching her on my wife’s team persevere through the entire night without ever getting successfully hit. For 80 points, Menagerie starts with Charge, Blades/Claws/Fangs, Shape Change AND a special defensive power that grants her Combat Reflexes and Super Senses! With a base 17 defense, that means Menagerie can charge in and leverage her close combat reflexes to gain a 19 defense plus leverage shape change and super senses. So, even with a decent attack value of 11, an attacker would need an 8 to hit her (base probability of 41.7%) but with shape change and super senses, that is reduced to an 18.5% chance to target and land a successful hit). That is basically akin to needing a 10 or higher roll on a standard attack (16.7% chance to hit).

In short, these two powers, Shape Change and Super Senses, while they seem benign, they can have noticeable impact alone (more than modifying a single attack or defense value by +/-1) and even greater impact when figures can leverage both.
While I didn’t delve into them too deeply, a quick search of HCREALMS units section identifies 212 current figures with both super senses and shape change on their dials. A quick look shows that many of them have both at the same time and that a good subset of these have either shape change or super senses as a traited ability (meaning that they never lose it throughout the game).

Further, there are a number of low cost figures (under 50 points) that have Super Senses and/or Shape Change combined with powers that make them harder to hit (ESD or CR) or great support powers (probability control, perplex, etc). Hence, while they may not be hard hitters – they may at least be hard to hit, not pricey, and providing key support to make your friendly characters stronger and more effective. Examples include Black Cat (WF-013 for 13 points and getting a special probability control and stealth), Newsboy Legion (SMWW-007 for 15 points, giving smoke cloud and ability to modify speed/range), and Dark Elf (FI-H013 for 20 points, giving leap/climb and blades claws fangs along with super senses).

If you’re like me, make sure to check your traits and dials and don’t forget to roll for your shape change – it could be game changer (no pun intended, but also not avoided…).

Future topics to come – The Breakaway, Probability Control, Blades/Claws/Fangs – when should I use it?, benefits of pogs/bystanders, and more!

Odds are important here, but there are subtle differences between Shape Change and Super Senses. If your opponent positions well, Shape Change might keep him away from his original target, but could still allow him to attack someone else as a consolation prize. Also, it's one of the few defensive powers that doesn't take a defensive slot, so on a standard dial, it can be really helpful. In the meantime, Super Senses takes up a defensive slot, so it sometimes takes the spot of something else on a standard dial. Additionally, while Super Senses completely voids the attack instead of merely redirecting it, it can be cancelled by Precision Strike. Shape Change can be cancelled by characters with Battle Fury, though Battle Fury is much less common since most players don't like sacrificing Range.

Lastly, there are plenty of other powers like Impervious that have similar odds of completely avoiding a roll. Statistically, these odds are the same, though the cover up the attack in different ways, and as such, have different weaknesses. Obviously, Impervious won't stop penetrating damage but it can stop most of the damage from Precision Strike, and doesn't mind Battle Fury at all. It's good to be able to know the odds, but there's more than one way to get to them!

Well, that's all for this time. I hope you learned something today, or at least saw something in a way you hadn't before. As before, if you have a question you'd like answered or a topic you'd like discussed, feel free to suggest it, and I'll see what I can do.

Shape Change is easily one of my favorite powers for these reasons. Super Senses as well.

It's (one of the reasons) why I love FF:JLTW Johnny Quick so much.

Great article! Seeing the math makes seeing that dark blue damage power even more daunting!! (or intriguing if it's on my dial)

Shape Change has KILLED me so many times.

Played last week and my opponent Shape Changed 6 out of 8 times !!!!

Who is your best Shape Change Killer?
I like Hellcat.
DEMON SIGHT: Adjacent opposing characters can't use Shape Change.

Also, she sports Mystics TA and some pretty good close combat powers

DrEpidemic did a great job on this article. However, he did fail to explain why Nick Fury makes his Shape Change roll 100% of the time I play against him. (I stole your joke Risto)

Shape Change is a heck of a thing to get around, but I always think about Precision Strike when going up against characters with Super Senses. Most of my teams will have 1-2 characters with PS... Anyway to beat the odds, since they are generally working against me all the time!

Fair point about precision strike - i didn't mention it (although it is the obvious best approach vs super senses) because if you use it, there is no super senses, and the math is simple - you have the same probability of a hit you started with. I did mention the possibility of targeting a 2nd opponent if your first target succeeds on the shape change roll - wasn't sure what other math to employ with an unknown second target (if one existed).

I hope folks are enjoying these.

Well, just about everything has some form of weakness, especially when we're dealing with base powers. Battle Fury and Precision Strike will happen, but they're not always present. In the same vein, no one mentioned simple Outwit, but really the numbers here are informative in how effective that Outwit will be (or Precision Strike or Battle Fury for that matter). I'm very happy to have something like this, and think it would be extra awesome down the road to include a page of previously talked about tables, sort of like eMouse's Atlas for Odds stats.

Two of the traits I hate to face...SS & SC. I am always hesitant to attack figs with those if I have another choice. Also hate to face Mystic teams...yuk!!!

SS, SC and Mystic are psychological defenses. Often when my opponent sees these powers on my dial, they simply won't attack!! What's better than a 33% chance to evade an attack...a 100% chance when they don't even attack!

The psychological aspect is very true, particularly when the character in question is not the tentpole. I love SC on low-point tie-up scrubs. Opponents will often attempt breakaway (50% chance, but they can PC it) rather than try an attack against such a fig.

Like annoying people?




Mr. Nobody phases with a decent movement, has both SC and and SS, and can scramble an opponent's powers. The object-placing trait is no joke, either.

The Pink Blob is just amazing. Traited SC with a reroll chance; traited Precision Strike; Toughness to say "nuh-uh" to Poisoners; PC to use for Breakaway prevention and attacks; Stealth to prevent Outwitting of PC, Toughness or the power-theft special.

Sincere thanks for this article- the odds chart is priceless! I've looked for one like this for years, actually.